“What if I were to tell you that we will never get back to 2 percent inflation, that the next decade will see more investment in decarbonization than ever seemed possible (and it will have nothing to do with ESG scores), and that the EU will undermine US attempts to isolate China…would you be interested in what this means for your firm?”Acclaimed for his bold prediction that Europe’s turn to austerity would end badly (it did) and then predicting (very early) both Donald Trump’s victory and Brexit, Brown University professor Mark Blyth continues to pinpoint the key forces that shape our economic futures. Renowned for making complex topics understandable and refreshingly entertaining, Blyth energizes audiences with his sharp Scottish wit and brilliant insights into what’s to come.Professor Blyth is the William R. Rhodes ’57 Professor of International Economics and Professor of Political Science and currently serves as Director of the William R. Rhodes Center for International Economics and Finance at Brown University. His books include Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea, which was translated into 16 languages and won numerous awards, Angrynomics, (with Eric Lonergan) a dialog on why our politics got so angry and what to do about it. He has two forthcoming books in 2024, Inflation: A Guide for Losers and Users, and Precipice: 2025, Carbon Politics and the End of American Power.These days two things most concern Blyth. The first is inflation—unlike most of us, he does not think that it’s going away anytime soon. Most of the forces that pushed inflation down for a generation, such as globalizing labor markets and favorable demographics are in retreat. This is compounded by climate change, which will stress agricultural and energy supply chains going forward. His forthcoming book, Inflation: A Guide for Losers and Users frames inflation as a problem of who is going to pay for it and who benefits from it. The answers are surprising and matter to us all.The second thing that concerns Blyth is decarbonization. Specifically, how shifting away from fossil fuels over the next decade will upend our politics, challenge global political alignments, and alter the risk and return profile of entire industries. Far from being a fan of tweaking things with ESG scores and similar “greenwashing” techniques, Blyth argues that serious decarbonization is about to switch into high gear, creating massive numbers of new winners and new losers. If you want to find out what “go
