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But numbers can also lead us perilously awry. Science is no stranger to this fact. Some of the best in the world have been guilty of finding signals in the noise where there are none. Of missing and misinterpreting subtle signals that go on to have dramatic and catastrophic consequences, of falling into the trap of over-relying on the numbers and of believing them to hold an objective fact.
In this talk, I want to take you on a tour of some of the most important lessons science has learned in 2020 and beyond. I want to show you why they matter, to share with you some extraordinary stories about what happens when things go wrong and to probe at the edges of quantitative thinking. We’ll decide what parts of our future are truly forecastable, demonstrate the awesome power and potential of data, and find its limitations.
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